Market Analysis – Gradual Recovery after Market Crash, Don’t Rush to Leverage, Wait for Q1 Next Year
MicroStrategy Reduces Buying Scale
Will MicroStrategy’s Financial Report “Lock-up Period” Impact the Market?
Binance Copy Trading Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News
This past week can be said to have experienced the largest decline since this bull market, both in terms of liquidation numbers and amounts, setting new recent highs. The decline in altcoins has also surpassed expectations, with many altcoin prices falling below their starting points, as if the bull market never happened. Social media is filled with articles about graduation, and it seems that the prediction of making profits before exiting has come true. The cryptocurrency market can change dramatically within a day.
After a few days of intense selling, the market saw a significant rebound yesterday. BTC rebounded from a low of $92,500 to a high of $99,487, a rebound of about 6%. Altcoins also recovered in sync, but the overall prices are still far from the highs of last week. The recent focus in the market has been on AI Agent, desci, and platform coins. Among them, the performance of platform coins is relatively strong, with BNB, BGB, and GT all rising, and the latter two even reaching new all-time highs.
In terms of future operations, last week’s weekly report mentioned that there may be fluctuations around Christmas, and considering the current stage as the first significant rebound after a major decline, it is unlikely to return to the high point immediately during the period when funds in Europe and the United States are resting. The recent large increases in cryptocurrencies are mostly mid- to late-stage coins in terms of market capitalization, and the general direction has not changed much. Therefore, GT Radar reduced the leverage of each portfolio last week to avoid unnecessary fluctuations and losses. The real opportunity for a significant increase will be in Q1 next year. The chart below also shows the increase in ETH in Q1 over the years, which indeed performs the best compared to other quarters. Therefore, it is advisable to use low leverage or adopt a more conservative grid trading strategy in the near future.
Listed company MicroStrategy announced the purchase of $561 million worth of Bitcoin again this week, with an average purchase price of $106,662. According to past records, this is the company’s seventh consecutive week of buying Bitcoin. However, this announcement actually led to a further decline in Bitcoin prices, as the amount of Bitcoin purchased by the company is much lower than in previous weeks (about only one-third of the previous week), raising doubts about MicroStrategy’s willingness to buy at this price level.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy is about to enter the “lock-up period” before the financial report is released, during which insiders will be prohibited from trading the company’s stock or related securities, and funding actions such as convertible bonds and share issuances will also be restricted. Although the regulations do not explicitly prohibit “acquiring Bitcoin” and other major asset transactions, they may be included in the internal restrictions of the company. Therefore, it is generally believed that MicroStrategy may not be able to participate in the market for the next 4 to 6 weeks and continue to absorb market supply. Data shows that Bitcoin has shown a stable upward trend during MicroStrategy’s purchase period in the past 7 weeks, except for the negative news from the Federal Reserve, the weakening buying power of MicroStrategy may also be a potential factor.
Copy Trading Links
Copy Trading Links
Copy Trading Links
“GTRadar – BULL”, “GTRadar – Balanced”, and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” have had a 7-day return rate of +0.39%, -0.63%, and -1.63% respectively, and a 30-day return rate of -2.5%, +3%, and -0.57% respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” has a net long position of 10% in BTC and ETH as the main assets. “GTRadar – Balanced” currently has a net long position of about 5% in BTC and BNB. “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” currently has a net long position of about 10% in ETH.
Followers who frequently change investment portfolios actually have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not easily end the copy trading due to short-term retracements. From the perspective of the curve, a retracement is actually a good time to start copy trading, and frequent entry and exit will significantly reduce the return rate.
The Federal Reserve’s hint of slowing down interest rate cuts caused a heavy decline in US stocks and Bitcoin.
Although economists and analysts had anticipated that the pace of interest rate cuts next year might slow down, the Federal Reserve’s officials’ indication that there would only be two interest rate cuts in 2025 still exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve also predicted that inflation may not reach the target of 2% until 2027, longer than the original forecast of 2026. This series of news has seriously affected the short-term trend of risk assets. In addition to the decline in the three major US stock indices, Bitcoin has also been falling from $106,000 for several days, temporarily falling below $93,000.
El Salvador Reaches Agreement with IMF, Significantly Restricts Bitcoin-related Policies in Exchange for $1.4 Billion Loan
El Salvador recently announced that as part of a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will make significant adjustments to its Bitcoin policies, including changing the acceptance of Bitcoin by merchants from compulsory to voluntary, gradually withdrawing the government’s involvement in the national cryptocurrency wallet Chivo, limiting tax payments to be made only in US dollars, and restricting Bitcoin-related economic activities in the public sector within a certain range. Binance 2024 Cryptocurrency Market Survey: Meme Coin Holders Surpass Bitcoin, AI Concept Coins Show the Most Potential
Binance conducted a survey of 27,000 users from six continents to explore future development trends in the cryptocurrency market. Among the respondents, 23.89% believed that the AI concept sector will stand out in 2025 and become the leader in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, meme coins ranked first in the list of users’ favorite holdings, accounting for 16.1%, demonstrating their popularity and market influence. Aptos Labs Co-founder and CEO Mo Shaikh Resigns
Mo Shaikh, co-founder and CEO of Layer 1 blockchain Aptos’ development company Aptos Labs, announced on Thursday that he will step down as CEO of Aptos Labs to “start a new chapter,” but will continue to serve as a strategic advisor to help its development. US SEC Approves First Cryptocurrency Index ETF Combining Bitcoin and Ethereum
According to documents released on Thursday, the SEC has authorized the listing of Hashdex’s “Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF” on the Nasdaq Exchange, and authorized the listing of Franklin Templeton’s “Franklin Crypto Index ETF” on the Cboe BZX Exchange. The documents show that the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by these two cryptocurrency index funds will be calculated based on free float market capitalization. US Bitcoin ETF Records Record $680 Million Net Outflow
According to data compiled by SoSoValue, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $680 million last Thursday, setting a new record for a single-day net outflow and ending the trend of net inflows for 15 consecutive trading days. In addition, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $60.47 million on Thursday, ending the trend of net inflows for 18 consecutive trading days. Justin Sun Continues to Sell Ethereum, Selling Nearly 180,000 ETH in the Past Month
Since November 10, Justin Sun has deposited a total of 179,101 ETH (about $645 million) into HTX, with an average price of $3,601. As of the 25th, Justin Sun still holds 106,905 stETH (worth about $372.4 million) and 56,277 eETH (worth about $195.8 million). Among them, 25,000 ETH ($87 million) is being unlocked from Etherfi and may continue to be transferred to HTX in the future. Japanese listed company Metaplanet Increases Holding of 619.7 Bitcoins
Japanese company Metaplanet, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, announced on Monday that it will increase its holdings by 619.7 Bitcoins (BTC), with a total cost of 9.5 billion yen (about $60.68 million), and an average purchase price of 15,330,073 yen. Security experts warn that Hyperliquid has been targeted by North Korean hackers
According to information shared by cybersecurity researcher Tayvano on X, multiple North Korean hacker-associated addresses are conducting transactions on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, claiming that North Korean hackers are not trading but testing. At the same time, Tayvano has continuously urged Hyperliquid to take this issue seriously. Trump nominates Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee and appoints Bo Hines to lead the “Cryptocurrency Committee”
US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Sunday on his social media platform Truth Social that he has nominated economist and former advisor Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee. The committee will provide the executive branch with advice on economic policies and strategies. Uniswap Layer 2 network Unichain plans to launch its public mainnet in early 2025
Uniswap’s development company, Uniswap Labs, announced over the weekend that its Ethereum Layer 2 network, Unichain, is expected to launch its public mainnet in early 2025 and plans to integrate permissionless proof-of-stake on the first day of the mainnet launch. MicroStrategy announces the purchase of approximately 526,200 Bitcoins with $561 million
According to SEC documents disclosed by MicroStrategy on Monday, the company acquired approximately 5,262 Bitcoins with approximately $561 million from December 16th to December 22nd, with an average purchase price of about $106,662. As of December 22, 2024, MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries hold approximately 444,262 Bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $27.7 billion and an average purchase price of about $62,257. Buying Bitcoin as a company reserve asset? Robinhood CEO: Discussed, but no plans yet
Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev recently stated in an interview on Anthony Pompliano’s show that with Robinhood’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies, the idea of “Bitcoin reserves” is occasionally mentioned. However, besides holding some Bitcoin to meet customer trading needs, the company currently has no plans to hold Bitcoin as an investment asset. MicroStrategy plans to issue billions of shares to purchase more Bitcoins
According to a 14A proxy statement submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the proposed plan intends to increase Class A common stock from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares, and preferred stock from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares. The company stated that the proposed share issuance will support its “21/21 Plan” (a $42 billion Bitcoin purchase plan).
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from the official announcement of GT Radar. Each user may have slight differences in entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future performance!
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