GT Radar Weekly Report 2/26: BTC Breaks Below $90,000, Buying Opportunities Arise

GT Radar Weekly Report 2/26: BTC Breaks Below $90,000, Buying Opportunities Arise

GT Radar Weekly Report 2/26: BTC Breaks Below $90,000, Buying Opportunities Arise

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Market Analysis – BTC Breaks Below $90,000, Altcoins Rarely Strengthen, Short-Term Bottom Fishing Opportunities Arise

Altcoin Decline Slows, Market Begins to Show Signs of Stabilization
SOL Declines Over 50%, Has It Already Been Priced In?
Market Environment Unfavorable for Risk Assets
Tariff Deadline Approaching for Canada and Mexico
February Consumer Confidence Index Declines
Market Focuses on Nvidia Earnings Report and PCE Index

Nvidia Earnings Report
January PCE Index
Short-Term Market Dynamics Forecast
Binance Copy Trading Analysis

GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News

BTC has dropped below $90,000 for the first time since Trump took office, further intensifying market panic. Additionally, last week Bybit was hacked, resulting in the theft of $1.5 billion worth of ETH, marking the largest cryptocurrency theft in history. ETH and SOL have both declined over 10% in the past week, while some altcoins have dropped 70% to 80% since the bull market peak in December, creating an extremely pessimistic market atmosphere. The well-known market indicator, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, currently scores only 21, indicating a state of extreme fear.

Despite the overall market downturn, it is noteworthy that this time BTC’s decline is relatively larger, and BTC.D (Bitcoin market dominance) has actually decreased, indicating that the altcoin market is relatively resilient and even performs stronger during rebounds. The decline of some altcoins has approached its limits, leading to a capital return and forming short-term signs of stabilization.
The sectors that rebounded strongly yesterday include:

Meme Coins: PNUT, NEIRO, and WEN performed well with relatively strong trends.
DeFi Sector: The SEC announced the termination of its investigation into UNI, driving a slight rebound in the DeFi sector.

SOL has fallen from a peak close to $300 down to $144, with a market capitalization evaporating by over 50%, making it a major casualty in this market correction. Apart from the overall market slump, SOL’s sharp decline has also been influenced by the following factors:

A significant reduction in on-chain transaction volume, leading to decreased market activity.
On March 1, 11.2 million SOL from FTX’s bankruptcy assets will be unlocked, causing the market to preemptively reflect selling pressure and triggering panic selling.
However, these negative factors may have already been priced in, and SOL’s current price (144 USD) offers relatively high cost-performance value, making it a potentially worthwhile bottom-fishing opportunity for long-term investors. As market panic subsides, funds may flow back, driving some quality coins to stabilize and recover.
BTC is currently oversold in the short term, with a rebound demand present.
BTC recently broke below $90,000, testing the support at $86,000, exacerbating market panic. From a technical perspective, BTC continues to be pressured by a red downward trend line, with the current short-term support area between $86,000 and $88,000, where trading volume has noticeably increased, indicating some support. In the short term, entry could be attempted, with a stop-loss set at $86,000. The GT Radar portfolio will also begin gradually entering to bottom fish.

Impacted by new U.S. tariffs, multiple economic data points, and corporate earnings reports, U.S. stocks performed poorly this week, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain insulated. The following factors will continue to influence the direction of the investment market in the short term.

Despite having previously delayed the implementation of the new tariff regime through negotiations, the deadline for the delayed tariffs is approaching. President Trump emphasized on the 24th that tariffs of 25% will be imposed on Canada and Mexico as scheduled next month. Trump stated at the White House: “We are imposing tariffs on time, and it seems to be progressing quite swiftly.”
This move has caused an already unstable market to fall back into panic, as Trump’s high tariffs, while helping to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. domestic industries, will simultaneously lead to further increases in U.S. prices, potentially causing a rebound in inflation that had only just started to ease.

In addition to policy considerations, the economic data released this week also brought bad news. The latest data from the Conference Board indicates that the consumer confidence index for February has declined for the third consecutive month, marking the largest drop since August 2021 and reaching the lowest level since June 2024, further proving the significant pressure that the uncertainty of Trump’s government policies has placed on American households.
Specifically, the consumer confidence index for February dropped 7 points to 98.3, declining for three consecutive months, falling short of economists’ estimate of 102.7, and well below the revised previous value of 105.3. The report indicates that consumers are more pessimistic about the current and future labor market conditions, as well as the outlook for income and business conditions.

Nvidia is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings report after U.S. stock trading on February 26. As a leading company in the technology and AI sectors, Nvidia’s earnings report is viewed as a health indicator for the technology industry, particularly regarding demand in the AI and data center markets. A strong earnings report would help bolster investors’ confidence in tech stocks; conversely, disappointing results could lead to selling pressure, impacting the entire market.
According to Visible Alpha data, the estimated revenue for this quarter is $38.32 billion, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase; while net profit is estimated at $21.08 billion, up 64% from the $12.84 billion of the same period last year.

In addition to Nvidia’s earnings report, the January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), to be released on February 28, is another focal point for the market this week. Since the PCE index and core PCE index are critical metrics for the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, they may influence expectations for future interest rate decisions. Currently, the market anticipates that PCE and core PCE will decline by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, to 2.5% and 2.6%.
If PCE exceeds expectations, it would indicate increased inflationary pressure in the U.S., further delaying the timeline for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, negatively impacting the overall market. Additionally, high inflation may make bonds more attractive compared to stocks, leading investors to shift towards the bond market.

Overall, short-term market trends can likely be divided into the following scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario: If economic data indicates strong growth (e.g., stable PCE inflation) and Nvidia’s earnings exceed expectations, the market may continue to rise, particularly tech stocks.
Cautious Scenario: If economic data shows mixed signals (e.g., PCE inflation higher than expected), while Nvidia’s earnings meet expectations, the market may remain stable, albeit with increased volatility.
Pessimistic Scenario: If economic data indicates a slowdown (e.g., initial jobless claims increase, PCE inflation higher than expected), and Nvidia’s earnings performance falls below market expectations, the market may face downward pressure, especially in tech stocks.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies generally correlate with tech stocks; therefore, the performance of tech stocks also represents the potential direction of the cryptocurrency market.

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The yields of “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – BALANCE,” and “GTRadar – POTENTIAL PUBLIC CHAIN OKX” over the past 7 days are -1.71%, +0.56%, and -3.81% respectively, while over the past 30 days, the yields are -6.9%, +0.64%, and -2.9% respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” has no holdings. “GTRadar – BALANCE” currently holds a net short position of approximately 5%, primarily in SOL. “GTRadar – POTENTIAL PUBLIC CHAIN” has no holdings.

Long-term followers who frequently change their investment portfolios underperform compared to those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not hastily end your follow due to short-term drawdowns; rather, based on the curve chart, drawdowns can present good opportunities to start following. Frequent entries and exits significantly reduce yields.

Trump criticizes Biden administration for its hostility towards cryptocurrencies, reiterates commitment to make the U.S. the “cryptocurrency capital”
U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference held in Miami that Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, reflecting his commitment to transforming the U.S. into the “cryptocurrency capital.” Additionally, Trump criticized the SEC during the Biden administration for being overly hostile towards cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that this war is now completely over.

Nigeria sues Binance: seeks $79.5 billion in damages and an additional $2 billion in tax
According to Reuters, the Nigerian government has officially filed a lawsuit against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, seeking $79.5 billion in economic damages and an additional $2 billion in tax payments. The government accused Binance of causing the Naira to depreciate and detained two of the company’s executives in 2024, as the cryptocurrency platform became a primary channel for Naira transactions.

SEC accepts 21Shares and Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF staking applications
The SEC officially accepted the staking applications for Ethereum ETFs from 21Shares and Grayscale over the past week. If approved, the ETF will be able to stake its held Ethereum (ETH), allowing investors to earn staking rewards. In addition, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett cited sources indicating that the current SEC working group is very interested in the “staking mechanism.”

Bybit exchange hacked, nearly $1.43 billion in ETH stolen
Bybit exchange was hacked over the weekend, resulting in the theft of ETH and related derivatives valued at $1.43 billion. This incident is reported to be the highest amount stolen in a single hack in cryptocurrency history, far surpassing the second-ranked Ronin cross-chain bridge hack. Fortunately, with help from various sectors and Bybit’s own financial capability, the platform covered all losses, and no losses were incurred by exchange users.

Pump.fun reportedly to launch its own AMM
According to community disclosures, Pump.fun, a meme coin issuance platform in the Solana ecosystem, appears to be developing its own automated market maker (AMM) liquidity pool, which is currently being tested at http://amm.pump.fun. Following this news release, the price of the Raydium token associated with Pump.fun saw a significant drop.

Crypto platform Infini hacked for nearly $50 million, founder uses personal funds for full compensation
Blockchain security company SlowMist announced on Monday that the smart contract of the cryptocurrency platform Infini was attacked, with approximately $50 million in funds stolen. Infini’s founder, Christian, stated that the platform’s withdrawal function is normal and that he will use personal funds for full compensation.

80% of SOL trades concentrated in bearish options! Deribit whales show strong bearish sentiment
According to CoinDesk, the total amount of block trades in SOL options on Deribit last week reached $32.39 million, accounting for nearly 25% of the exchange’s total options trading volume of $130.74 million. According to Amberdata data, this is the “second-highest” block trade share in history.

Strategy completes $2 billion convertible bond issuance and increases Bitcoin holdings by 20,356
American software company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced on Monday that it has completed the issuance of $2 billion worth of zero-coupon convertible senior notes due in 2030, planning to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including Bitcoin acquisitions and operating capital.

SBF tweets on X for the first time in two years, FTT soars 30% in one hour
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of FTX currently serving time in prison, tweeted on X for the first time in two years, addressing employee layoffs and corporate management challenges. This sudden tweet led to a more than 30% surge in the already meme-like FTT within one hour, injecting new topics into the struggling market.

U.S. SEC accepts Grayscale’s Cardano spot ETF application
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted a proposal submitted by NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, on behalf of Grayscale to apply for the listing and trading of a Cardano spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Market maker giant Citadel Securities reportedly plans to enter the cryptocurrency market
Citadel Securities, a well-known market maker led by billionaire Ken Griffin, is seeking to become a liquidity provider in the cryptocurrency market, betting that President Trump’s support for the industry will bring new development opportunities for this asset class.

U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs face massive capital outflows, market sentiment turns cautious
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded over $516.4 million in net outflows on Monday (February 24), marking the fifth-largest single-day capital outflow since their launch in January 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs were also not spared, experiencing a net outflow of $78 million on Monday, led by BlackRock’s ETHA, with a total outflow of $100 million over three consecutive days.

SEC has terminated lawsuits and investigations against several cryptocurrency-related companies
According to multiple media reports, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has terminated lawsuits against Robinhood and Coinbase this week, while also withdrawing its investigation into Uniswap Labs and will not take further enforcement actions.

Strategy’s Bitcoin premium collapses, “Bitcoin expansion strategy” may be forced to slow down
The premium of Strategy’s market capitalization relative to its Bitcoin holdings has dropped from 3.4 in November 2024 to 1.6 in February 2025. This decline indicates that the company’s capital for further Bitcoin purchases may be restricted, forcing it to slow its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice, and all data comes from GT Radar official announcements. Each user may experience slight differences due to varying entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!