The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has surged to 54.1, reaching a nearly two-year high, exceeding the market’s expectation of 53.5. At the same time, the Prices Index has sharply risen from 58.2 to 64.4, indicating further cost pressures. However, the Employment Index has decreased to 51.4, below the previous value, reflecting challenges in employment and costs despite steady growth in the service sector.
This data suggests that inflation pressures may rise again, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a higher level of vigilance in monetary policy. With the market now pushing back expectations for the first rate cut to June or July 2025, the possibility of a rate cut in January has been ruled out, and even the March meeting is not viewed favorably. This shift has led to a downturn in market sentiment, with all major indices declining. As of now, both BTC and altcoins are facing significant drops, with BTC falling back to $96,000 and ETH dropping to $3,300. Meme coins, such as PNUT, WIF, NEIRO, which were previously highly popular, have mostly plummeted to the lows seen in the December crash.
With approximately two weeks left until Trump’s inauguration, discussions on related cryptocurrency bills are ongoing. It is anticipated that there will not be significant changes in the overall trend before then. The recent medium to long-term uptrend has been disrupted by the significant drop following the data release yesterday. The short-term outlook has shifted to oscillating. Currently, the lower support for Bitcoin is around $92,000, with pressure at $102,000. During this period, the GT Radar portfolio will reduce leverage and refocus on some cryptocurrencies in the Coinbase 50 or those related to U.S. politics. The AI Agent race, which has been very popular recently, faces limitations due to being relatively new and most of the currencies trading on-chain, making it challenging to include in the selection for copy trading. However, some AI-related cryptocurrencies will still be added to the portfolio.
**Table of Contents:**
– Poor Performance of Altcoins, Shift of On-Chain Funds towards AI Agent Race
– 2025 Investment Themes: Focus on AI Agent Race and Diversified Allocation
– Analysis of Coin-Matching on Binance
In the past two weeks, despite Bitcoin briefly reaching $100,000, most altcoins have not followed suit, showing little upward momentum and significantly reduced trading activity. On the other hand, AI Agents primarily operating on-chain have attracted substantial capital inflow due to their technological innovation, application potential, and most importantly, their topicality. According to Coingecko’s data, the past 7 days have seen AI Agents and the AI concept sector outperforming most other concept sectors, highlighting the strength of AI Agents in the current market.
As Trump is set to officially assume office as U.S. President on January 20th, this is undoubtedly the most closely watched issue globally. Some political meme coins (such as $trump, $maga) have experienced short-term gains due to the return of attention. However, since the rise of the AI Agent concept, market enthusiasm for such purely meme coins has notably decreased. Especially for coins that have not landed on major exchanges like Binance, once the hype fades, prices generally lack support and are prone to significant corrections. The decline in related meme coins following Trump’s election victory underscores this risk. Therefore, the speculative window for political meme coins is very brief, and participants are advised to exit promptly after making profits.
**2025 Investment Themes: Focus on AI Agent Race and Diversified Allocation**
In 2025, the focus of investment will center around the AI Agent race. Recent reports by Microsoft on AI development and statements by Nvidia’s founder, Jensen Huang, emphasize that the future market size of the AI Agent sector could reach trillions of dollars, far surpassing the current market valuation of $17 billion. While the AI Agents in the cryptocurrency field cannot be directly compared to those of major tech companies in terms of resources, technology, and talent, the cryptocurrency market has always been driven by the “attention economy.” Similar to the metaverse trend in 2022, assets related to the correct narrative and race have the potential for upward movement.
Numerous AI and AI Agent-related projects have emerged, including deployment platforms such as Virtual, Ai16z, Swarms, Act, and Clanker; AI Agents like zerebro and aixbt; and AI meme coins such as fartcoin. However, most of these targets can only be purchased on-chain, with relatively poor liquidity and higher risk compared to other currencies, making them less accessible to general investors. It is crucial for investors to exercise caution before investing.
In addition to the AI Agent concept sector, we also recommend paying attention to the following races and assets for diversified allocation:
– RWA (Real-world Asset Tokenization): Clearer regulatory prospects under the upcoming Trump administration could be a positive factor for the regulatory-sensitive RWA sector.
– DeFi (Decentralized Finance): As long as the bull market continues, some DeFi protocols that have evolved into infrastructure will continue to prosper.
– DeSci (Decentralized Science) and Depin: Exploring innovative scenarios driven by future technology.
– Coinbase 50 and projects screened by other well-known institutions such as the SEC and BlackRock, which are key supporters of assets.
The returns of “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – OKX Potential Public Chain” over the past 7 days have been -5.48%, -4.55%, and -6.28%, respectively. Their returns in the past 30 days stand at -16.21%, -6.32%, and -6.62%, respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 30%, primarily in BTC and ETH. “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net long position of approximately 10%, mainly in BTC and BNB. And “GTRadar – OKX Potential Public Chain” holds a net long position of around 30%, primarily in ETH.
Switching investment portfolios frequently may result in lower long-term returns compared to consistently following a single portfolio. It is advised not to end copy trading easily due to short-term pullbacks. From a curve perspective, a pullback could be an opportune time to start copy trading, as constant entries and exits tend to significantly reduce returns.
According to the latest report from 10x Research, MicroStrategy’s stock price has plummeted over 45% from its peak, indicating a significant shift in investors’ attitudes towards its leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy. The market now recognizes that the cost of indirectly holding Bitcoin through MicroStrategy is much higher than direct purchases, leading to a gradual loss of appeal for its “leveraged Bitcoin investment tool.” Coinbase’s premium index has dropped to its lowest level in 12 months.
The key indicator of U.S. Bitcoin retail market demand, Coinbase’s premium index, recently hit its lowest level in 12 months. Market analysts caution that this could pose a challenge to short-term price recovery for Bitcoin. Ethena releases its 2025 roadmap, announcing the launch of several products, including iUSDe, to enter the traditional finance sector.
Guy Young, the founder of the Ethereum stablecoin protocol Ethena, released the 2025 roadmap “Convergence,” outlining Ethena’s achievements in 2024 and plans for 2025. The next phase of growth will focus on exporting products to the traditional finance sector. The roadmap indicates that Ethena is set to launch products such as the packaged token iUSDe, sustainable contracts, the spot exchange Ethereal, and the on-chain options and structured product protocol Derive. Bitcoin exchange inflows and miner outflows have significantly decreased, possibly indicating a reduction in selling pressure.
The amount of staked Ethereum continues to decline, challenging Lido’s dominant position. In October 2024, the amount of Ethereum locked on liquidity staking platforms briefly exceeded 14 million, but as of January 5, 2025, it has dropped to around 13.78 million, below the record at the end of November 2024. Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of the Japanese investment company Metaplanet, stated on the social platform X that Metaplanet intends to increase its Bitcoin reserves to 10,000 BTC through “the most efficient capital market tools available.” The company currently holds approximately 1,761.98 BTC (valued at around $175.4 million), with a total cost of 20.872 billion yen. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warns that Bitcoin may be nearing its peak due to challenges in Trump’s policies.
In his latest article, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes uses a metaphor of a ski slope in Hokkaido, comparing the flow of dollars to snow and the potential disappointment from high expectations of Trump’s policies to hidden bamboo leaves under the snow. He predicts the future trends of the global investment market, including Bitcoin. Bitfinex report: Bitcoin seller liquidity is drying up, with the potential for further upside in the medium term.
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex’s report released on Monday suggests that while Bitcoin may still experience deeper pullbacks in the first quarter of 2025, broader supply tightening and bullish sentiment among miners indicate the potential for further upside in the medium term. U.S. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam to step down on Trump’s inauguration day.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam told the Financial Times that he will step down on January 20, the day of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. Additionally, Behnam expressed concerns about the inadequate regulation of digital assets (including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies). U.S. JOLTS job vacancy data and ISM service index dampen rate cut expectations, leading to declines in stocks and cryptocurrency assets.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job vacancies in November unexpectedly increased from 7.8 million in the previous month to 8.1 million. At the same time, the ISM Services Index for December surged to 54.1, exceeding the expected 53.5. These reports have shaken the already tense bond market, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise by 5 basis points to 4.68%, resulting in declines in the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency assets.
This content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is sourced from official announcements on the GT Radar website. There may be slight differences in entry and exit prices for each user, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
U.S. ISM Services Data Damps Rate Cut Expectations, Bitcoin Plummets Below $98,000
The US ISM Services Index surged to 54.1, reaching its highest level in nearly two years a…