Author: Lao Bai, Partner of Investment Research at ABCDE Capital
Yesterday
Discussion on the Predicament of ETH on Twitter
This has sparked numerous private messages and comments from friends, so I will summarize some points and provide a follow-up.
1. Regarding the breakthrough point for ETH, could Based Rollup be the answer?
My viewpoint is that it’s difficult to say in the long term, but in the medium to short term, it will not be. Based Rollup would have had hope if it had initially been the mainstream technical framework for Rollup, but now it is quite challenging.
First, several major L2s have no incentive to transform into Based Rollups; why would they give up the rights and benefits they have already acquired? Second, the interoperability that Based Rollup has been promoting seems difficult to achieve, as it is unlikely that all Based Rollups will coincidentally use the same batch of L1 validators for sorting and packaging. Third, to avoid a decline in user experience, Based Rollup must add pre-confirmation, which is somewhat similar to the original Validium and poses a security risk. There are strong objections to this technology from overseas ETH technical KOLs.
2. Are there any applications that Solana can do that ETH cannot?
The answer is that, from a technical perspective, there is none, but the world has never been solely about technology.
Why have PumpFun, AI Meme, Depin, and Payfi occurred on Solana rather than ETH or any L2? This is actually the first time in ETH’s history that it faces a competitor skilled in operations (What? You mention EOS and Dot? Their operations are… hard to describe). How many innovations has Tencent truly created from scratch? QQ was modeled after ICQ, and Honor of Kings (note: referring to “Wangzhe Rongyao”) was modeled after LOL, yet which of these wasn’t a massive success and made substantial profits? Today, Time.Fun has also migrated from Base to Solana, clearly not for technical reasons, but rather due to cultural and operational considerations.
3. Why are there no Near in the AI track distribution map, no IOTEX in Depin, and no BNBChain or AVAX in Game?
This track distribution map primarily reflects the distribution of hundreds of application-level first-market projects I have discussed over the past six months, many of which are still under the radar, with no external financing information released. Therefore, it does not represent the existing projects that are visible in the current secondary market. Moreover, our fund cannot cover every new project on the market, so the sample is limited; this is merely a market distribution perspective I personally observed, shared for everyone’s reference.
4. Monad and MegaETH mainnets have not yet launched, how can there be so many projects in mainnet development? Lao Bai, are you trying to promote your own interests?
Star public chains are different from ordinary public chains; even before the mainnet or even the testnet has launched, there are already dozens of new projects being built and developed based on them. Various events like Hacker Houses and Incubation programs are thriving. Monad, MegaETH, and Berachain are typical representatives of this type.
As for promoting personal interests, ABCDE is indeed one of the early investors in MegaETH, but we have not invested in Monad or Berachain. However, I still do not hesitate to praise Monad in the list, even though it is the biggest competitor to our portfolio MegaETH. This is because their ecosystem is indeed well constructed, and their technology is robust enough. The future market can accommodate the joint prosperity and advancement of two ultra-high-speed EVM public chains. They are both competitors and friends.
Monad – Make EVM Great Again!
MegaETH – Make Ethereum Great Again!
Original link:
Lao Bai’s X
This article is an extension of “ABCDE Investment Research Partner: Discussing the Current ‘Predicament’ of Ethereum from the First Market Perspective”
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