Recently, industry insiders cited by AP Abacus have claimed that several Ether spot ETF issuers may need to undergo two rounds of S-1 filings, with a high likelihood of approval expected in late July. As the potential approval draws nearer, traders are beginning to speculate on the price trends post the Ether ETF approval.
Analysts from cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research believe that an Ether ETF could serve as a significant catalyst for Ether prices, with Ether likely outperforming Bitcoin in the weeks following its listing in the United States. According to a report by Cointelegraph, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman anticipate an initial decline in Ether prices following the ETF launch but expect a subsequent rise as new capital flows in, mirroring the pattern observed with Bitcoin.
On the other hand, Bitcoin worth $8.5 billion is set to be returned to creditors of the now-defunct exchange Mt. Gox starting this week, in addition to ongoing sales of seized Bitcoin by the German and U.S. governments, which could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Consequently, Ether’s performance may have the opportunity to outshine Bitcoin during this period.
“With the arrival of summer and the accumulation of funds, ETFs act as a strong catalyst for ETH’s relative strength. I firmly believe that the current ETH/BTC price is cheap for patient traders… We maintain a bullish outlook on ETH and expect net inflows to reach 0.75-1% of ETH’s circulating supply within five months post-launch.”
Furthermore, Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman note a significant surge in the outstanding contracts of Ethereum futures following the SEC’s approval of the 19b-4 document for Ether ETFs in May, indicating that many traders are leveraging substantial leverage to speculate on Ether’s potential price movements prior to the ETF launch.
However, another interpretation in the market is that the approval of Ether ETFs provides arbitrage opportunities for traders and hedge funds, with many institutions engaging in arbitrage by capitalizing on the relative discounts of the Grayscale Ether Trust Fund (ETHE) compared to the Ether market price.
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