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Market Analysis – ETH Surges 20% Benefiting from ETF News, Is it Still a Good Time to Enter?
Binance Copy Trading Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
Market Potential Opportunities
Ethereum Ecosystem and SOL Ecosystem
NVDIA Quarterly Financial Report to be Released Tonight, Focus on AI Concept Coins
Headline News
Yesterday, on May 21, a post from a Bloomberg analyst stated that the SEC’s attitude towards Ethereum spot ETFs may undergo a major change. As soon as this news came out, ETH surged more than 20% in a single day, and the entire market followed suit. BTC also rose by about 8% in a day. This news injected a boost of confidence into the cryptocurrency market, which had been in a slump for about two months. Currently, ETH has briefly surpassed $3,800, and BTC has briefly surpassed $72,000. However, there has been a slight pullback since then.
Originally, the market had a pessimistic view on whether the SEC would approve the Ethereum spot ETF on May 23. However, one of the reasons for such a big reversal may be attributed to political factors. This year’s end is the U.S. presidential election. In the increasingly heated election atmosphere, both party candidates will do their best to release positive news to gain voter support. Recently, the Republican presidential candidate Trump has been labeled as cryptocurrency-friendly and has also opened up cryptocurrency donations. In comparison, the Democratic candidate Biden has not made much progress in the cryptocurrency field. As a result, there may be rumors that the ruling party wants to pressure the SEC to approve positive news related to cryptocurrencies in order to gain more support from cryptocurrency voters. This is also why some macro analysts believe that the probability of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved has greatly increased.
Reviewing this ETH surge, there were actually some signs before the price increase. The main players in Bitfinex’s ETH/BTC spot market increased their positions with leverage again on May 19. This is the third significant increase since March 11, and the magnitude of this increase is also the largest in two years for Bitfinex, indicating the main players’ optimism towards ETH. In addition, on the technical side, before breaking the downtrend line, the 12-hour MACD indicator had already formed multiple bullish signals with bullish divergences at the bottom. These two signals were also mentioned in the GT Radar community before the price increase. Congratulations to those who noticed.
Based on the current trend, it is not recommended for those who haven’t entered yet to chase the ETH price surge. First of all, ETH is less than 7% away from its previous high of $4,100 in March this year, so even if it rises, the profit potential is limited. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the main players on Bitfinex have significantly reduced their positions and taken profits. The market has already fully reacted to the increased probability of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved. Chasing ETH now is actually equivalent to gambling on the decision on May 23.
According to Bloomberg data, the Ethereum spot ETF applied by VanEck will face its final decision on May 23, U.S. time, while the Ethereum spot ETFs applied by Ark and 21 Shares will face their final decisions on May 24. If approved, prices will definitely rise. However, in case of a rejection, a short-term correction is certain. Therefore, it is recommended that futures contract players not chase the price now. However, spot traders can consider entering the market now and wait for the decision result before adding more positions, whether it is approved or delayed. From the current overall trend, the market has already established a direction, and the overall probability is that the Altcoin market will likely rise. GT Radar will also make position adjustments this week, switching from conservative mode to active mode.
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“‘GTRadar – BULL'” and “‘GTRadar – Balanced'” have a 7-day return of +11.11% and +5.19% respectively, and a 30-day return of +7.53% and +1.41% respectively.
Both portfolios have shown significant growth in profits over the past week, with the BULL portfolio’s return noticeably increasing. This is mainly due to the stimulation from the news of the ETH spot ETF on May 21, which triggered a surge in the overall market.
Currently, the “‘GTRadar – BULL'” portfolio has a net long position of about 150% (full position is 300%).
The “‘GTRadar – Balanced'” portfolio currently holds more positions, with ETH being the most profitable. The overall position is about 80% (full position is 300%).
Both portfolios are expected to make adjustments before Friday, May 24, switching from a conservative to an active mode. Users who want to increase their copy trading amount must complete it before this Friday.
Copy traders who frequently change portfolios actually have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not end copy trading easily due to short-term drawdowns. From the perspective of the curve, drawdowns are actually a good time to start copy trading. Entering and exiting frequently will significantly reduce the return rate.
With the positive news of the Ethereum spot ETF, related ecosystems may also benefit. For example, Ethereum Layer 2 concept coins ARB and OP… both increased by more than 20% yesterday, and the DEFI sector also benefited from the rise. Among them, LDO increased nearly 40% in two days. It can be said that the Ethereum ecosystem, which has been quiet for a long time, may restart speculation. In addition, if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it is conceivable that besides ETH itself, there will be a significant increase in other potential targets that may be approved for spot ETFs. Just like when the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, the market immediately shifted its focus to ETH. Currently, the most anticipated target is SOL, so closely monitor the developments in related ecosystems.
NVIDIA’s quarterly financial report will be released tonight, and the market has high expectations for future growth, especially after the release of the latest version of ChatGPT4o, which immediately sparked market imagination about AI. Wall Street also has high expectations for the future demand for AI in the market. Although most AI projects in the cryptocurrency market currently do not have remarkable products, there is a possibility of significant volatility following NVIDIA’s financial report.
The Ethereum spot ETF applied by VanEck has been listed on the DTCC with the stock code ETHV.
The Ethereum spot ETF applied by global investment management company VanEck has been added to the ETF list on the website of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). However, this listing is only part of the preparation process and does not mean that the company’s Ethereum spot ETF has been fully launched, as the fund is still awaiting regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to drive open interest in futures contracts to a record $14 billion.
As the market’s expectations for the approval of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF application turned positive, the open interest of Ethereum futures contracts reached a record $14.6 billion, and the ETH price rose more than 16% in 24 hours. A well-known analyst has increased the probability of the SEC approving the Ethereum spot ETF from 25% to 75%. The SEC is scheduled to make a ruling on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF on May 23, and the market is highly concerned about this decision.
Dragonfly Capital Partner: “VC Coins” Are Like Rats Crossing the Street, Who is to Blame for the Continuous Decline of New Tokens?
Newly listed tokens often start to decline, especially since April, this phenomenon has become more apparent. What are the reasons for this? The article analyzes the three main reasons attributed by mainstream views: venture capitalists/KOLs selling to retail investors, retail investors abandoning these tokens and instead buying meme coins, and insufficient supply leading to a lack of meaningful price discovery.
How is the narrative in the crypto space changing? AI remains hot, while BRC20 tokens are fading from view.
How to measure the current narrative hotspots in the crypto market? Kaito provides a method to calculate the user’s attention to narratives (mindshare). In simple terms, this index measures the dominance of narratives in social communication relative to the entire market (percentage). The denominator is composed of users in the cryptocurrency Twitter circle from proprietary search engine and social graph data, and the numerator is the number of mentions of each narrative on social platforms. This provides the most quantitative and comprehensive narrative view in any market cycle.
Study on the Influence of Crypto KOL Tweets: Short-Term Pump Effect is Obvious, Following $1,000 Copy Trading for a Month Results in an Average Loss of $79
For retail investors, paying attention to various KOL bloggers’ pump tweets is an important source of obtaining wealth codes. So, are KOL pump tweets a surefire way to make profits or just a series of coincidences? Studies have shown that when key opinion leaders (KOLs) mention certain cryptocurrencies on Twitter, these tokens often experience negative returns over a longer period of time. This phenomenon may be due to investors’ overreactions and market sentiment fluctuations. The research analyzed the correlation between KOL tweets and token price trends and concluded that investors should be cautious about such information to avoid potential losses.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar’s official announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!
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