GT Radar Weekly Report 3/26: Bitcoin Surpasses $88,000, Is the Bottom of the Cryptocurrency Market Emerging?

Market Analysis

Trump Softens Stance on Tariffs

Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Slows Quantitative Tightening

ETF Capital Flows Stabilize

Bitcoin Market Share in High-Range Consolidation

Bottom Signals Gradually Emerge

Binance Follow-up Analysis

GTRadar – BULL

GTRadar – Balanced

GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX

Focus News

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has once again become a global focus. In recent months, the movements of both the financial and cryptocurrency markets have been centered around Trump’s tariff policies and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate expectations. This week’s rebound follows the same pattern.

On February 13, 2025, Trump signed a presidential memorandum announcing the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” aimed at correcting international trade imbalances through reciprocal tariffs and ensuring the interests of American workers and industries. The plan requires the trade and economic departments to assess the tariffs and non-tariff barriers of each trade partner, calculate the corresponding reciprocal tariff rates, and submit a report expected to be presented in April 2025, with the implementation date set for April 2.

While the policy aims to protect U.S. domestic businesses, the increase in tariffs could not only raise operating costs for companies that rely on imports but also lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, resulting in trade wars that could impact U.S. export companies and the global market. Furthermore, the increase in tariffs could expose the U.S. to the risks of intensified inflation and economic recession. According to a Tax Foundation Analysis, a 25% tariff could lead to a long-term GDP reduction of 0.2%, affecting 223,000 full-time jobs. This uncertainty has caused global financial markets to be enveloped in a risk-off sentiment, with safe-haven assets generally underperforming over the past month.

However, Trump seemed to soften his previously hardline tariff stance in a statement on March 21 (last Friday), stating that reciprocal tariffs would “remain flexible, but essentially reciprocal,” and that some goods and countries might be exempted starting April 2. This announcement provided the market with a new pricing momentum, as “things may not be as bad as everyone thought.” After this statement, the three major U.S. indices rose, and Bitcoin also surged to the $88,000 range.

In addition, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range but slowed the pace of quantitative tightening (QT). Starting April 1, the monthly reduction cap for U.S. Treasury bonds will be reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, allowing the market to retain more liquidity.

Regarding inflation risks that could be triggered by tariffs, Fed Chairman Powell stated that inflation caused by tariffs would be temporary, and thus there was no need for authorities to take action. Prior to this, the market had some concerns about whether the Federal Reserve would change its expectations due to potential inflationary pressures, but Powell’s comments alleviated investors’ concerns. The market reacted positively to the decision from the meeting, with both the stock and cryptocurrency markets experiencing rebounds.

On the cryptocurrency market side, signals of improvement seem to be emerging as well.

The rebound in the cryptocurrency market this week seems to have given traditional financial investors confidence to enter and buy the dip. According to data from Sosovalue, Bitcoin spot ETFs ended consecutive net outflows starting from March 14, and for the past week, they have been in a net inflow state. This indicates that the selling pressure from traditional financial markets has significantly eased, and buyer demand is recovering, which is undoubtedly a positive signal for Bitcoin’s future trends.

Currently, Bitcoin’s market share has been in a high-range consolidation for nearly two months, oscillating between 60% and 62%. Historical experience suggests that this is often a precursor to the launch of altcoins, and many cryptocurrencies have indeed emerged from their bottom zones. The CEX sector is relatively strong, especially in the AI and Meme sectors, which remain the most focused narratives in the market. The AI sector has experienced a collective rebound, with $ai16z, $arc, $aixbt leading the way.

Technically, Bitcoin is still undergoing bottom consolidation on the 4-hour chart, but an important signal of price stabilization is that it has broken through a long-term downtrend line (red line), indicating that the downtrend has ended. Short-term resistance is around $89,000, and if it can stabilize above that level, it could potentially start a rebound towards $92,000. The overall structure still leans towards a bottoming and consolidation phase, with bottom signals becoming increasingly clear.

Follow-up Link

The returns for “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” over the past 7 days were +1.41%, +1.06%, and +1.90%, respectively, and the returns over the past 30 days were -0.82%, -8.83%, and -4.12%, respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of about 15%, primarily in BNB. “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net long position of about 10%, mainly in BNB, SOL, and ETH. “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” holds a net long position of about 5%, primarily in BNB and AVAX.

Investors who frequently change their investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow one portfolio. Do not end your copy trading just because of short-term drawdowns. From the chart, it shows that drawdowns could actually be a good time to start copy trading, and coming in and out frequently lowers returns significantly.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Slows Balance Sheet Reduction

The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday and to slow down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT). The market reacted positively to this decision, with both the stock and cryptocurrency markets rebounding.

Uniswap Foundation Proposal Passes with $160 Million Development Fund

The Uniswap Foundation announced that two of its governance proposals (Proposal 82 and Proposal 83) had passed the statutory threshold last night. This result signifies the upcoming launch of Unichain and the liquidity incentive program for Uniswap v4, with a total funding of $165 million to support the development over the next two years. The Uniswap Foundation stated that these proposals aim to expand the Uniswap ecosystem and mark the “beginning of the next era” for the Uniswap community.

Glassnode Data Shows Increased Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Intentions

According to the latest research report from blockchain data analysis platform Glassnode, although long-term Bitcoin holders (wallets holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days) took profits during the market downturn last week, the data shows that the selling pressure from this group has started to ease, which may indicate a shift in market sentiment.

BlackRock Executive Says Market is Overly Pessimistic About ETH

Robert Mitchnick, the head of digital assets at BlackRock, recently stated that despite Ethereum’s underperformance due to market narrative confusion, technical upgrade-related revenue decline, and increased competition from Solana, he believes the market’s pessimism is exaggerated. He emphasized that investing in Ethereum is a bet on blockchain adoption and innovation.

TON Foundation Raises $400 Million Through Token Sale

The Open Network (TON) Foundation recently announced the sale of over $400 million worth of Toncoin ($TON) to multiple institutional investors, including Sequoia Capital. However, the foundation did not disclose details such as the sale price and lock-up conditions for this token sale.

SEC Clarifies Position on Proof-of-Work Mining

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clarified its stance on Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining, stating that specific PoW mining activities do not involve the issuance and sale of securities, and participants in mining activities are not required to register their related transactions with the SEC under securities law. This reduces regulatory uncertainty for PoW-based cryptocurrencies.

Bitfinex Bitcoin Leverage Long Positions Hit Six-Month High

Bitfinex’s leveraged long positions, often considered a leading indicator of a bull market, have been rapidly increasing since mid-February. The related positions rose to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC, equivalent to $6.92 billion, marking a new high since October of the previous year. Notably, from February 20, the leveraged long positions on Bitfinex increased by 27.5%.

U.S. Treasury Lifts Sanctions on Tornado Cash

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Friday that it has exercised its discretion to lift economic sanctions on Tornado Cash following a review of legal and policy issues arising from implementing financial sanctions in an evolving technological and legal environment. This will ease regulatory uncertainty for Tornado Cash users.

Ethereum Daily Burn Hits Historical Low

Data shows that the amount of ETH burned on the Ethereum network hit a historical low last Saturday, indicating a significant drop in demand for Ethereum block space. According to data from The Block, only 53.07 ETH were burned on that day, worth about $106,000, setting a new all-time low.

BitMEX Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Rebound to $110,000

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, who had previously predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $70,000, stated on Monday that Bitcoin will reach $110,000 before testing $76,500.

Trump’s “I Love TrumpCoin” Tweet Sparks Price Surge

U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly mentioned his official meme coin, $TRUMP, on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday night. He wrote, “I love $TRUMP—so cool! The best!” This caused the $TRUMP coin to surge over 12% within half an hour, but it then fell back as buying pressure was insufficient.

Strategy Announces Purchase of 6,911 Bitcoins, Total Holdings Exceed 500,000 BTC

During a significant rebound in the cryptocurrency market, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced an additional Bitcoin purchase. According to a Monday announcement, the company bought around 6,911 BTC between March 17 and March 23 at a cost of about $584.1 million, with an average purchase price of $84,529 per Bitcoin.

Dogecoin Foundation Launches “Official Dogecoin Reserve”

The Dogecoin Foundation’s new corporate division, House of Doge, announced on Monday the launch of the “Official Dogecoin Reserve.” This initiative aims to position Dogecoin as a global mainstream payment solution. To activate this reserve, the foundation has purchased 10 million Dogecoins, valued at about $1.83 million.

Trump-Backed WLFI to Issue Institutional Stablecoin USD1

According to a statement, USD1 will be 100% backed by U.S. short-term Treasury bills, dollar deposits, and other cash-equivalent assets, and will initially be issued on the Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain (BSC) blockchains. It is expected to expand to other protocols in the future. Each token will maintain a value of $1 and be fully backed by a reserve portfolio, which will be regularly audited by a third-party accounting firm.

GameStop Board Approves Bitcoin as Part of Company Reserves

According to a filing from the U.S. publicly listed company GameStop, the company’s board has unanimously approved the decision to include Bitcoin as a financial reserve asset. It is reported that GameStop may use existing cash or raise capital through future debt or equity issuance to invest in Bitcoin, but the specific amount or allocation cap has not yet been disclosed.

The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from the GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not indicate future results!