Bitfinex Analyst: Bitcoin’s Rebound Driven by Spot Buying, Subsequent Pullback Performance Determines Market Direction

Analyst Report from Cryptocurrency Exchange Bitfinex

Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a report released on Monday that the recent rebound in Bitcoin’s momentum stems from demand in the spot market rather than through leverage or derivatives speculation, indicating that buyers have a high level of confidence in the market outlook.

Bitcoin has experienced a correction lasting over 80 days since its peak in January this year, with a maximum decline of 31%. Bitfinex analysts noted that this falls within the typical range of a “bull market correction,” suggesting that this correction can still be viewed as a normal consolidation within a bull market.

Source: Bitfinex

Continuation of Buying Pressure as Key to Future Uptrend

The report from Bitfinex highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD, which tracks the net difference between buying and selling volumes over a period of time) on major exchanges has steadily increased over the past week, indicating that buyers are continuously absorbing supply. Even in the face of large sellers attempting to place limit sell orders, buyers remain actively engaged.

Despite this, Bitcoin’s price has not yet shown a significant breakthrough. Analysts believe that the phenomenon of “persistent buying pressure without price increases” indicates that potential market demand is quietly accumulating, while strong selling pressure has not yet materialized in response. Once supply begins to dwindle or large sell orders are cleared, the market could potentially experience a price breakout, but this still requires macroeconomic alignment.

Analysts stated that how the market performs during corrections, particularly the behavior of the spot market, will be key to determining whether upward momentum is present in the future. The report stated:

Analysts also pointed out that on-chain data suggests that trends may be starting to shift. The net position changes of long-term Bitcoin holders have turned positive, showing clear upward momentum, which coincides with the timing of Bitcoin’s price rebound, indicating that long-term holders may be beginning to rebuild positions after months of distribution.

Source: Bitfinex

However, analysts caution that it is still too early to declare a trend reversal. The strength of the momentum is not yet sufficient to confirm a decisive change in market structure. For the time being, “both on-chain and centralized exchange data are showing a convergence of spot buying pressure,” but the trend still depends on whether market demand can stabilize in the face of short-term pressure.