On-Chain Analysts Warn: The True Bottom for Bitcoin May Not Have Been Reached Yet, with $65,000 Potentially Serving as a Key Support Level

Table of Contents

Toggle

Surrender Selling as a Signal

The probability of falling below $40,000 is low.

A solid bottom structure is forming in the consolidation zone of 2024.

The market still needs to observe whether a “surrender selling” phase appears.

James Check points out that for a true surrender selling event to occur, Bitcoin prices may need to fall to around $65,000, which he describes as the “true average level of the market,” representing the average cost level of active investors. The key aspect of this price level is that once it is breached, many short- to medium-term, and even long-term holders will face psychological pressure from unrealized losses. “Even seasoned holders who have held Bitcoin for over five years may find themselves in a loss-making position,” Check notes. He adds that this range is roughly equivalent to the Bitcoin purchase cost of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) — approximately $67,500 — which also meets the conditions for psychological and technical support.

The Probability of Falling Below $40,000 is Low

Although Check maintains a cautious stance on short-term price declines, he emphasizes that Bitcoin has strong support in the $49,000 to $50,000 range. This not only marks the activation zone when the spot ETF is launched in 2024 but also represents a psychological barrier at the $1 trillion market capitalization of Bitcoin. He believes that unless the global economy falls into a full-blown recession, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 is relatively low. Even if prices dip, the market may quickly experience a technical rebound and investor replenishment.

A Solid Bottom Structure is Forming in the Consolidation Zone of 2024

Check also analyzes Bitcoin’s price trends over the past period, noting that since 2024, Bitcoin has been maintaining long-term fluctuations between $50,000 and $70,000, forming what he calls a “consolidation structure.” This wide-ranging consolidation has kept both bulls and bears in a stalemate, but it has actually accumulated strong support on the price chart. He believes that the price fluctuations during this period play a positive role in the healthy development of the market, as they help establish a “reasonable valuation range,” providing a foundation for future increases.

The Market Still Needs to Observe Whether “Surrender Selling” Appears

Overall, James Check’s perspective reminds investors that even though Bitcoin is currently maintaining a relatively high level, the market has not completely ruled out the possibility of further corrections. $65,000 has become a critical support point, and once breached, the market could enter a phase of emotional panic selling. However, he also indicates that the long-term technical structure remains relatively robust. Investors should pay attention to whether prices approach the support zone further and continue to track on-chain data and changes in market sentiment.