The Dollar System on the Brink of Collapse: Treasury Takes Over Money Printing; Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will Rise Alongside Gold

Arthur Hayes on Market Behavior and Policy Response

Arthur Hayes uses skiing in Hokkaido as an analogy to describe market behavior and policy responses when facing risks. He points out that the tariff policy announced by Trump on April 2 was a “deliberately triggered avalanche,” which increased volatility in the U.S. bond market to a historic high. The MOVE index briefly soared to 172 points, and market panic quickly spread to the stock market and global asset markets.

However, the market’s drastic reaction immediately prompted a policy shift from the White House. Within a week of the announcement, the Trump team postponed additional tariffs on countries other than China, while the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury also quickly signaled policy easing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even initiated the “Treasury Buyback Program” for the first time, issuing new bonds to repurchase old ones, thereby releasing systemic liquidity and stabilizing the bond market.

Arthur Hayes notes that this kind of “unconventional easing” policy, while not constituting direct money printing, significantly increased the market’s available leverage, creating conditions for institutions like hedge funds to buy government bonds, and indirectly suppressing bond market volatility. He indicates that after this wave, the market now knows the pain threshold that policymakers can tolerate, as well as their likely responses once that threshold is crossed, which will be a significant advantage for Bitcoin.

Today, the international community sees Trump as a madman wielding tariffs recklessly, and any investor holding U.S. stocks and bonds is seeking something with anti-establishment value. In tangible terms, that is gold. In terms of digital assets, it is Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes emphasizes that the U.S. government can no longer rely on traditional central bank quantitative easing measures to maintain market stability, and has transferred the “money printing responsibility” to the Treasury, which is maintaining bond market functionality through repurchases and high-frequency bond issuance. He anticipates that the quarterly refinancing announcement (QRA) to be released on May 1 and the tax data in mid-May will be key indicators for the next steps in the market. Hayes believes that as government deficits continue to expand, the only asset to benefit will be Bitcoin, as it is a decentralized, sovereign-risk-free currency option.

Arthur Hayes asserts that a local bottom for Bitcoin has been established at $74,500, and he expects it to gradually rise in the coming months as U.S. dollar liquidity continues to expand. His family office, Maelstrom, has already purchased a large amount of Bitcoin and a small position in altcoins during the decline from $110,000 to $74,500.

“Once Bitcoin breaks through the historical high of $110,000, it is likely to soar further, solidifying its dominance. Perhaps it won’t rise to $200,000. Then, altcoins will take over and usher in an Altseason.”

Regarding altcoins, Arthur Hayes states that the best-performing tokens will be those that can both generate profits and return those profits to stakers. However, such projects are few and far between. Maelstrom is still accumulating positions in these qualifying tokens, and Arthur Hayes has indicated that he will write a comprehensive article in the future introducing some of these projects, as well as why Maelstrom believes their cash flows will continue to grow in the near future.