Arthur Hayes: Attention Should Be Paid to the Direction of U.S. Treasury Policies, Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million by 2028

Cryptocurrency Exchange BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Future of Bitcoin

Recently, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, stated in an interview that the key institution influencing global liquidity and the future of Bitcoin is not the U.S. Federal Reserve, but rather the Treasury Department. Driven by increasing liquidity and geopolitical factors, he predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028. Hayes also revealed his current cryptocurrency investment portfolio and the three projects he is most optimistic about.

Treasury Department Has Greater Influence on Global Liquidity

Hayes believes that the market is focusing on the wrong entity; the key institution impacting global liquidity and the future of Bitcoin is not the U.S. Federal Reserve, but the Treasury Department. For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has already become a supporting actor, and he believes that the real control over monetary leverage lies with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is quietly reshaping the global liquidity structure through repurchase and auction strategies to address the ever-expanding U.S. debt burden.

This influx of capital, combined with the U.S.’s inability to curb spending, is the reason Hayes believes Bitcoin will rise to $1 million before 2028. He stated:

Thinks U.S.-China Trade Agreement Will Amount to Window Dressing

Hayes believes that monetary policy is not the only catalyst; geopolitical factors will also play a role, especially the performative trade diplomacy between the U.S. and China. As both sides are posturing, Hayes thinks it is likely that the two countries will sign a seemingly tough agreement that will, in substance, bring no change. He expressed:

Given the political risks associated with tariffs, Hayes believes the next step for the U.S. will be to tax foreign investments, a subtle form of capital control aimed at reducing U.S. reliance on foreign buyers while avoiding domestic voter panic, thereby allowing the American public to accept the restructuring of the trade system. Hayes stated: “The only truly effective policy is capital control.”

Hayes believes the U.S. government may still have various tools at its disposal, not just taxing foreign-held government bonds or stocks but also more radical measures, such as forced bond exchanges, converting 10-year bonds into 100-year long bonds, or imposing higher withholding taxes on capital gains from U.S. assets, all aimed at rebalancing America’s financial accounts without forcing Americans to “buy less.”

At the same time, Hayes believes that China will not actually exit the scene; even if they superficially pretend to have other options, they still have to continue purchasing U.S. assets. For Hayes, all of this ultimately leads to one outcome: more capital will flow within the system, and Bitcoin will absorb the overflow.

Investing in Useful Altcoins

In the interview, Hayes also revealed his current cryptocurrency investment portfolio: 60% to 65% allocated to Bitcoin, 20% to Ethereum (ETH), and the remainder invested in what he describes as “quality junk coins,” with Pendle, ether.fi, and Ethena being the three projects he is most optimistic about.

Hayes noted that in the past, market investors did not require projects to have cash flow and users; they only needed a great vision and a charismatic founding team, without truly rewarding those projects that spent real money on products and services and returned income to holders. Now the market is tired of useless tokens, which may be the reason this current bull market has not yet ushered in a true altcoin season.

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