Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000 and Ethereum Strongly Rebounds: Market Sentiment Recovers with Major Assets Leading the Rebound Cycle

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Constructive Signals from US-China Trade Talks, and Recovery in Gold and Stock Markets: Global Asset Markets Show Signs of Rebound This Week

This week, with a risk appetite returning, the cryptocurrency market reacted prominently: Bitcoin has returned above the $100,000 mark, showing resilience under stable policies and continued institutional inflows; Ethereum has rebounded strongly from last month’s low, with a monthly increase of over 80%, becoming an essential indicator in this round of mainstream asset rotation. As the CPI is about to be released and policy observations enter a new phase, the market is poised for a critical window of risk preference and price momentum rebalancing.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Sentiment: A Tug-of-War Between Policy Stance and Inflation Expectations

Bitcoin Price Analysis (Source: BingX)

This week, the market focused on the Federal Reserve’s May decision and subsequent policy signals. At the May 7 meeting, the Fed announced it would maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%. ### Powell emphasized that while the current economy is robust, inflationary pressures remain, indicating that the timing for interest rate cuts will be delayed. Despite a resilient job market, inflation remains above target, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged at the June meeting, with the first cut likely postponed until after July.

President Trump continues to express dissatisfaction with current policies, publicly calling for interest rate cuts to boost the economy. This tension between politics and financial policy has become one of the key points for market observation regarding future economic trends.

Gold continues to demonstrate strong safe-haven attributes. On May 9, gold prices reached a high of $3,333.86, closing the weekend at $3,281.27. Since the beginning of the year, gold has accumulated a gain of over 25%, reflecting the market’s increasing demand for hedging against geopolitical risks, inflation, and central bank purchasing behavior. Technically, the $3,350 level is an important resistance; a subsequent breakthrough would unleash a new wave of bullish momentum.

In terms of stocks, US equities experienced a correction in early May, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all declining for two consecutive days. However, after the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged on May 7, market confidence began to recover, with major indices rebounding. Positive earnings reports from some companies (such as Disney rising nearly 11%) and constructive developments in US-China trade talks (with reports on May 9 indicating progress in the Geneva meeting) became key factors for market stabilization.

The cryptocurrency market also stabilized simultaneously, reflecting the high sensitivity of risk assets to policy stability. Bitcoin prices began to recover from May 6, reaching a high of $104,809 on May 11, with the fear and greed index rising from 65 to 72, entering a high zone, indicating a clear recovery in market risk appetite. Despite the overall job market remaining healthy, consumer confidence has declined for four consecutive months, indicating that inflation and trade uncertainties continue to exert pressure on market sentiment. The market is widely focused on the upcoming CPI inflation data to be released on May 13, which will not only provide a reference for the Fed’s future interest rate path but could also become a catalyst for volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrency Market Structure and Capital Observations: Risk Appetite and Momentum Shifts Under Price Rebound

Ethereum Price Analysis (Source: BingX)

This week, Bitcoin prices quickly rebounded from the low on May 6, standing above $96,000 on May 9, and further climbing to $104,809 on May 11, with a weekly increase of over 10%. As of May 12, Bitcoin was quoted at $103,218, still below the January high of $109,079, but the overall trend shows a structural recovery.

In terms of market sentiment, the fear and greed index has risen to 72, indicating that investor sentiment leans towards the greedy range. Although there is a strong bullish atmosphere, high sentiment also means that short-term profit-taking pressure needs to be continuously monitored.

On-chain data shows that short-term holders of Bitcoin (within 155 days) are realizing profits, but long-term holders continue to absorb at the bottom, supporting a mid-term bullish pattern. ETF inflows reached $1.54 billion this week, reflecting that institutional capital is still entering the market.

On the other hand, Glassnode indicates signs of risk aversion in the market: a decrease in futures open interest, an increase in options hedging positions, and a reduction in realized profits suggest that some traders are beginning to consolidate their risk exposure. If no new capital drives the market in the short term, further corrections may still occur.

The market share of stablecoins (such as USDT) has slightly increased, reflecting a stage where funds are entering a wait-and-see and conservative allocation phase; the DeFi and NFT markets continue to show weakness, with multi-chain TVL down 27.5% from the previous quarter. Although the total market capitalization has fallen back to $2.8 trillion after peaking in January, Bitcoin’s dominance increased by 4.6% in Q1, reaching 59.1%, indicating that capital rotation still favors core assets. Ethereum prices have shown significant rebound this week, rising sharply from last month’s low of $1,386, and standing at $2,516 on May 12, with a monthly increase of over 80%. This surge is mainly supported by Bitcoin leading the overall market recovery, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, the upcoming 10th anniversary of Ethereum, and the rotation of capital towards lower-priced assets. Although its performance in Q1 was relatively sluggish, the recent technical rebound indicates that performance differences among mainstream assets are gradually narrowing, with market sentiment beginning to return to non-Bitcoin narrative sectors.

Market Structure and Outlook: Strategy Anchoring During a Period of Volatility and Consolidation

In summary, this week the market showed a significant rebound under the dual background of ETF capital inflows and stable policy tones, with price and sentiment indicators synchronously recovering, but on-chain and derivatives structures still reflect limited short-term momentum, with investors remaining cautious.

With the upcoming release of CPI inflation data on May 13 and details of US-China trade negotiations, the market will witness a new wave of intersection between macro and policy signals. If the inflation data indicates that price pressures are manageable, market risk appetite is expected to continue to recover, and cryptocurrency assets may also maintain the current rebound structure.

Overall, Bitcoin is gradually regaining market dominance under the support of institutional capital and a friendly policy stance. Although the price is still in a volatile range, both technical and capital indicators suggest that mainstream assets are brewing the next wave of mid-term upward momentum.

Future observation points include the continuity of ETF capital flows, changes in institutional positions and on-chain whale behavior, whether macro data supports a policy shift, and whether non-Bitcoin narratives such as Ethereum, RWA, and AI blockchain projects can take over to boost market activity, further driving the overall rise of altcoins.

As the market enters a strategy adjustment phase, the coming week will be a critical juncture for observing directional shifts and capital redistribution.

About BingX

BingX, established in 2018, is a leading global cryptocurrency exchange that provides diversified products and services such as spot trading, derivatives, copy trading, and asset management to over 10 million users worldwide. In 2024, BingX became an official partner of the English Premier League team Chelsea Football Club, showcasing its international brand layout.

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