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Israel’s Airstrikes Deal a Heavy Blow to the Market
The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on the Market
How Will the Current Israel-Iran Conflict Affect the Market?
Today, following reports of Israeli attacks on Iran, both gold and oil prices surged, while risk assets faced significant pressure. Many investors panicked and exited during this downturn, with numerous individuals suffering liquidation due to unexpected price declines. According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, a total of 246,570 people globally were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching as high as $1.14 billion, predominantly affecting long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, does the impact of such geopolitical conflict events truly have such a significant effect on risk assets? What have been the effects of similar historical events on Bitcoin?
We have compiled six recent geopolitical conflict events that occurred globally, the vast majority of which are similar to the current situation. In the short term, they all caused market shocks, and due to differences in liquidity, Bitcoin typically experienced greater downward pressure compared to the stock market.
| Event | Date | Market Reaction | Type of Conflict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia’s Annexation of Crimea | 2014/3 | European stocks fell, U.S. stocks saw a short-term pullback | Territorial Dispute / Military Action |
| U.S. Airstrike Killing Iranian General Soleimani | 2020/1 | Gold and oil prices surged, stock market retreated | Military Attack |
| Border Clashes between India and China | 2020/6 | Indian stocks fell by 1.5%, capital withdrew from emerging markets | Border Conflict |
| Outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War | 2022/2/24 | Global stock markets plummeted, energy prices soared | Full-scale War |
| Israel-Hamas Conflict (Hamas Attacks) | 2023/10/7 | Cryptocurrency assets briefly fell, gold and oil prices rose | Terror Attack and Ground War |
| Israel Attacks Iran (2025) | 2025/6 | Oil and gold prices skyrocketed, risk assets declined | International Military Strike |
However, upon reviewing historical trends, we find that once short-term volatility subsides, both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market often stabilize within 2 to 3 weeks. It is noteworthy that the Russia-Ukraine war, due to its large scale, led to prolonged impacts on the market after stabilization due to surges in energy and grain prices, exacerbating global inflation for several months. (The declines in 2020 were not solely attributed to war but were influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.)
From the current perspective, the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict can be significant or minor. The situation between the two countries currently remains in the early stages of “military strike vs. retaliation risk.” As long as it does not escalate into a regional war, the market is expected to stabilize quickly.
However, if this conflict escalates into a regional war, the impact will undoubtedly surpass that of the Israel-Hamas conflict and could reach levels similar to the Russia-Ukraine war. This is because the Israel-Hamas conflict mainly occurs in the Gaza Strip and within Israel, which is geographically relatively contained; neither country is a major energy exporter and they are not directly involved in global energy routes.
In contrast, Iran is a strategic player in the Persian Gulf, and if war breaks out, it could affect oil tanker routes in the Gulf, impacting 20% of global oil maritime exports. The surge in oil prices could further trigger a global increase in prices and inflation issues.
In summary, looking solely at the economic impacts and structural changes in the market that have already occurred, the destructive power of the Russia-Ukraine war still far exceeds that of the current Israel-Iran conflict. However, if the Israel-Iran conflict escalates into an energy war in the Persian Gulf or if the U.S. is directly attacked by Iran, the situation will be comparable to the Russia-Ukraine war, and could even be more dangerous.
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