Market Holds Its Breath for the “Jackson Hole Economic Symposium”! QCP Capital: Short-Term Positions Remain Vulnerable, Risk Management is the Top Priority

QCP Capital Releases a Forward-Looking Report on the “Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference”

QCP Capital today released a forward-looking report addressing market concerns regarding the “Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference.” The institution’s analysts pointed out that, although current market inflation pressures have eased, with the CPI clearly below 3%, the higher-than-expected PPI in July has made the market aware that inflation has not been completely defeated.

At the same time, cracks are beginning to appear in the labor market: non-farm employment growth has weakened, and previous data has been revised downward, deepening market concerns about economic slowdown. In this context, Powell’s interest rate message will become the focus. The situation is highly tense: how to set the monetary policy path will depend on how the market balances between easing inflation and rising labor risks.

According to data from FedWatch, traders expect an 85% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 17. However, with nearly a month until the next rate decision, the economic data released during this period may quickly change expectations.

Analysts noted that several key data observation points include:

• August 21–23 – Jackson Hole Conference
• August 29 – U.S. Core PCE
• September 5 – U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data
• September 10 – U.S. PPI and Core PPI
• September 11 – U.S. CPI and Core CPI
• September 17 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision

QCP Capital pointed out in the report that the current market reaction remains cautiously observant, with the atmosphere reflected in the U.S. stock market shifting from optimism to risk management. The pullback in the cryptocurrency market is even more pronounced. Despite the formal legislation of the “GENIUS Act” and institutional adoption exceeding $100 billion being positive signals for the cryptocurrency market, QCP Capital still warns:

“Recent sell-offs indicate that short-term market positions remain fragile. If Powell adopts a hawkish tone, or if upcoming labor and inflation data unexpectedly rise, risk assets may face further pressure.”