Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that although it is unlikely, if the application for a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States is rejected this month, the reason is likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wants “more time” rather than a direct rejection.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Balchunas stated that he and his colleague, ETF analyst James Seyffart, still believe that the probability of ETF approval before January 10 is 90%, but they have not increased this number mainly due to this concern.
Balchunas also stated that the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers have invested a significant amount of time and effort, which means that it is unlikely for the Bitcoin ETF to be completely rejected at the last minute.
Vetle Lunde, an analyst at cryptocurrency research firm K33, expressed a similar opinion in a market report on January 2, but he believed that the probability of ETF rejection is only 5%.
At the same time, Balchunas believes that if the SEC rejects the ETF completely, fund issuers may take a similar approach to Grayscale, a cryptocurrency asset management company, and file their own lawsuits against regulatory agencies.
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