“Bitcoin Fakes a Breakthrough Before the Release of US Inflation Data, 10x Research Founder: The Trend Has Not Completely Reversed Yet”

"Bitcoin Fakes a Breakthrough Before the Release of US Inflation Data, 10x Research Founder: The Trend Has Not Completely Reversed Yet"

"Bitcoin Fakes a Breakthrough Before the Release of US Inflation Data, 10x Research Founder: The Trend Has Not Completely Reversed Yet"

As the inflation data that may determine when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates is about to be released, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 3% in the past 24 hours, causing the previous bullish breakthrough to fail.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price trend from early March to the present has formed a converging triangle pattern. Although the cryptocurrency experienced a breakout on Monday, it fell back into the pattern last night. Failed breakouts often lead to short-term traders closing or reversing their bullish bets due to expectations of further significant price declines. However, Markus Thielen, the founder of digital asset research firm 10x Research, still reminds investors not to overinterpret Bitcoin’s failure to maintain its bullish momentum.

Source:
CoinDesk

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI data for March 2024 at 8:30 PM Taiwan time on Wednesday. Thielen stated in an interview with CoinDesk:

Thielen added that the Nasdaq index rose on Tuesday, providing a positive signal for Bitcoin and other risk assets. In other words, the decline in Bitcoin may only be temporary. Cryptocurrencies closely follow the trend of the Nasdaq index and the ratio of Nasdaq to the S&P 500 index.

Strong economic and labor market conditions have forced the market to adjust expectations for the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate cut and the number of rate cuts this year. On Monday, data from Fed Funds Futures showed an expectation of a 60 basis point rate cut this year, a significant decrease from the 150 basis points in early January. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is below 50%, lower than the nearly 60% prior to the optimistic non-farm payrolls report released on Friday.

Noelle Acheson, the author of the newsletter “Crypto Is Macro Now,” stated on Tuesday that the market has started to lower its expectations for interest rate cuts. According to CME pricing, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June has dropped to 50%. “In other words, there may be some volatility, but it feels like the market has become more pessimistic about the inflation outlook.”

Acheson added:

Source:
CoinDesk