Bitcoin Halving Approaches 100 Days Study Shows Bitcoin Will Accelerate to Rise After 100 Days of Halving

Bitcoin Halving Approaches 100 Days Study Shows Bitcoin Will Accelerate to Rise After 100 Days of Halving

Bitcoin Halving Approaches 100 Days Study Shows Bitcoin Will Accelerate to Rise After 100 Days of Halving

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Halving is just the beginning after 100 days
Bitcoin Approaches $70,000 Threshold
According to CoinDesk’s report, ETC Group’s latest research shows that the bullish impact of Bitcoin halving usually takes about 100 days to start showing.
As is well known, the Bitcoin block reward halving is a built-in code that takes effect every 210,000 blocks mined (equivalent to four years). This quadrennial event reduces miners’ block rewards by 50%, with the main purpose being to control the supply of Bitcoin and ensure its scarcity over time, unlike fiat currencies subject to inflation. The first halving was implemented in 2012, reducing miners’ rewards per block from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, while the most recent halving took place on April 20, further reducing it to 3.125 BTC.
Previous halvings have paved the way for multiple significant price increases, with most of the gains appearing after 100 days. Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, stated on X:
After analyzing the data before and after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Andre Dragosch concluded that the average excess performance 100 days after halving significantly increased and became statistically significant, with the “T-value” exceeding 2%.
The T-value is a statistical indicator used to determine the deviation of the sample mean from the population mean in hypothesis testing, influenced by the variability of the sample.
When interviewed, Andre Dragosch stated:
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has surpassed $69,000, approaching the $70,000 threshold, hitting a seven-week high and only 5.7% away from its all-time high of $73,757.
Recent positive sentiment towards Bitcoin has been mainly driven by two US presidential candidates and a prominent Republican senator speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy and Senator Cynthia Lummis discussed plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States, while former President Donald Trump stated that if re-elected, the government would no longer sell Bitcoin. If these plans materialize, they could create significant buying pressure and supply shocks in the Bitcoin market.
In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for June only rose by 0.1%, with inflation under control, increasing market confidence in a rate cut in September.
The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision on July 31, and although the market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows a 95.9% probability of rates remaining between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Expectations for a rate cut in September are strengthening, with a probability of 85.8% for rates to drop to 5.0% to 5.25%. If realized, this would be the first rate cut since March 2020.