BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin May Experience a 30% Pullback in March, Citing Possibility of Taiwan’s “Pro-China Presidential Candidate” Winning

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin May Experience a 30% Pullback in March, Citing Possibility of Taiwan's "Pro-China Presidential Candidate" Winning

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin May Experience a 30% Pullback in March, Citing Possibility of Taiwan's "Pro-China Presidential Candidate" Winning

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes released a lengthy article titled “Signposts” on Friday, analyzing the current market trends.

Hayes pointed out that the exhaustion of the US reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) and the cancellation and restart of the buy-to-finance plan (BTFP) imply market liquidity instability. Since the cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to liquidity changes, these fluctuations may have an impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. On the other hand, if the currently highly anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF begins trading, it could lead to a sharp increase in Bitcoin prices in the short term. However, it may subsequently experience a price decline due to excessive overvaluation.

Overall, Hayes expects Bitcoin prices to experience a 20% to 30% decline in early March. Once the spot ETF starts trading as expected, it could drive Bitcoin to break through $60,000 and approach the 2021 historical high of $70,000. However, with rapid liquidity withdrawal, a larger decline of 30% to 40% may occur.

Hayes revealed that he has been purchasing a large amount of cryptocurrencies since the second half of last year, with Bitcoin and Ether occupying the largest portion, accounting for around 70% of his investment portfolio. However, he plans to start purchasing put options expiring on June 28th as a hedge in late February. Once the short-term market turbulence subsides, he will reconfigure by the end of March, anticipating that cryptocurrencies may continue to rise amid speculation about the upcoming Bitcoin block reward halving.

Another interesting aspect is that Hayes, when commenting on the market situation in China, does not rule out the possibility of a pro-China candidate winning the 2024 Taiwan presidential election. He believes this could change the relationship between Taiwan and mainland China, thus affecting regional politics and the economy.

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