Market Analysis – BTC Rebounds After Breaking Lows, Short-Term Downside Risk Exists
Binance Follow Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
Market Potential Opportunities
Meme and AI Rebound Strongly
Restarting Grid Trading Strategy
Rise of SocialFi Applications
Event Notification – MaiCoin Lecture [Identifying the Big Cycle of the Cryptocurrency Market and Analyzing Future Potential Tracks in the Bull Market]
Lecture Topic
Highlighted News
BTC experienced the largest monthly decline since 2023 in April. Looking back, the main reasons for the decline were the tensions in the Middle East and market concerns. The Federal Reserve not only refrained from cutting interest rates, but market concerns also emerged about raising interest rates. However, the tensions in the Middle East did not escalate, and the Federal Reserve announced last Friday that it would start tapering its balance sheet in June. The interest rate decision remained unchanged from the previous period, indicating no short-term intention to raise rates. The market temporarily dispelled concerns. The subsequently released non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, indicating that the actual employment situation in the United States is not optimistic.
However, after this news, the market began to anticipate the possibility of interest rate cuts in the future. Interest rate cuts usually favor the rise of risky assets, so BTC also rebounded on the same day, rising from around $56,500 to a high of $65,500, with a maximum increase of 15%. Altcoins also rebounded in sync, with the meme and AI sectors being the most eye-catching, both experiencing increases of over 20%.
From a technical perspective, BTC broke the downtrend line last week on May 5 and briefly stayed above the EMA200. However, the subsequent trend weakened, and this week it fell below the EMA200 again, showing a weak downward trend. Currently, the trend is still holding above the red downtrend line. However, considering that the overall direction has turned bearish and the failure to break through the resistance zone of $66,000 on May 5, a high-high-low bearish trend has formed. There is a higher probability of further decline and short-term support at $66,000.
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The “GTRadar – BULL” and “GTRadar – Balanced” have a 7-day return rate of 0.86% and -0.35%, respectively. The 30-day return rate is -13.68% for the former and -1.09% for the latter.
After several days of major declines, the cryptocurrency market finally experienced a significant rebound in the past week. However, the overall trend is still in a weak oscillation, and the strategies for placing orders remain relatively conservative, with few entry strategies.
Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of about 30%, with a higher allocation to BNB.
Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net long position of about 10% and holds multiple cryptocurrencies, but the positions are not large.
Followers who frequently change their investment portfolios actually have lower long-term returns compared to followers who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not end the follow-up easily due to short-term retracement. From the curve chart, the retracement is actually a good time to start following. In and out frequently will greatly reduce the return rate.
The cryptocurrency market this week has risen from the level of $56,500 to $65,500, and the overall market has also rebounded. During this period, the sectors with the largest increases can be divided into two categories: meme coins and AI concept coins. Among them, the most sought-after meme coins are PEPE and WIF, both of which have increased by more than 20% in the past 7 days. This seems to indicate that when the market stabilizes and rebounds, meme coins are still the preferred short-term momentum trading positions for speculative funds. This can be used as a reference for investors in short-term bottom-fishing trading in the future.
In addition, AI concept coins such as RNDR, WLD, AGIX, FET, and TAO have also performed well this week. Coincidentally, there have been many recent news about the AI field, including Microsoft’s increased layout of AI technology and OpenAI’s development of a search engine, etc. In addition, Nvidia’s stock price has also rebounded from a low of $812 to above $900 in the past week. It seems that as long as there continue to be new news or breakthroughs in the AI sector, the cryptocurrency AI concept coins can also benefit from the speculation.
In addition to the above two sectors, coins such as AR, JUP, and ENA are also worth paying attention to.
The current market is basically in a consolidation phase, and the probability of a one-sided trend in the short term is not high. Multiple operations may result in more losses. In addition, the annualized returns from exchange storage interest rates and funding rates arbitrage have also declined significantly. At this time, allocating funds to grid trading strategies may be a good choice.
The so-called grid trading is an automated arbitrage trading tool that allows users to set high and low price ranges to profit from market volatility. Many exchanges currently have built-in functions for this. Investors can try to allocate some funds to ensure that they will not suffer losses due to the double kill of long and short positions during volatility, and instead benefit from it.
The recommended parameters for the BTC grid shown in the following figures can be customized on the built-in robot page of Binance.
This week, due to the issuance of coins by Friend tech, the discussion around SocialFi has been increasing. This may be the first step in the booming development of the SocialFi concept track. It can be seen that many people, such as Brother Ma Ji, are acquiring FRIEND tokens and providing liquidity to form LP. The main reason is that Friend tech allows LPs providing liquidity to earn “Triple Mining” rewards. The so-called “Triple Mining” rewards come from:
1.5% of the liquidity pool fees
Additional rewards for one-year liquidity mining on the total of 12 million FRIEND tokens
1.5% transaction fee of Club Key
Investors willing to bet on Friend tech can consider participating. It is said that the annualized return from “Triple Mining” is approximately 600%.
In addition to Friend tech, top applications that tokenize KOLs such as Fantasy.top, the long-popular farcaster, and meme coin-related Pump.fun are also worth user participation.
【Limited Enrollment | Identifying the Big Cycle of the Cryptocurrency Market and Analyzing Future Potential Tracks in the Bull Market】
How to determine the current cycle of the cryptocurrency market, whether it is the beginning or the end of the bull market?
The characteristics of each cycle’s market conditions and the trading tools that maximize profits
How sectors flow during the bull market, and the differences between this round of bull market and previous ones
Analysis of future potential tracks
Time: May 18, 2024 (Saturday) 14:00 ~ 15:45
Location: MaiCoin HQ, 2nd Floor Exhibition Hall – No. 104, Section 1, Bade Road, Taipei City
Cost: Free
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MicroStrategy, a U.S. publicly listed company holding a large amount of Bitcoin, is reportedly planning to launch a decentralized identity solution based on the Bitcoin blockchain network. The goal of this protocol is to store and retrieve users’ personal information using unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) on the Bitcoin blockchain, according to Dylan LeClair, a Bitcoin community KOL.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded its first net outflow, according to information shared by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. On May 1, IBIT, which has had almost no outflows since its listing, recorded a net outflow of approximately $37 million. This day also saw the highest total net outflow for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States to date, totaling $560 million.
Robert Mitchnick, the head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that after the current lull, a new wave of activity from different types of investors may be seen. Mitchnick stated in an interview that in the coming months, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and endowment funds may begin trading Bitcoin ETFs.
Block, a company owned by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, will start using a portion of its gross profit to periodically acquire Bitcoin. According to Block’s recent financial report, the company began purchasing additional Bitcoin with 10% of its monthly Bitcoin-related gross profit in April and plans to increase holdings every month for the remainder of 2024. According to the first-quarter financial report, Block’s Bitcoin-related gross profit was $80 million. If this level of profitability continues into the second half of this year, the company’s balance sheet will increase in value by an additional $24 million in Bitcoin, according to this plan.
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, shared in a recent post that he personally chose to buy Solana and Dogecoin for short-term momentum trading positions, and he would consider buying more PENDLE and other undervalued altcoins for long-term altcoin positions. Hayes stated, “I will increase the exposure of these investments with the remaining time in May. Next, my plan is to set these investments and stop frequent adjustments, waiting for the market to gradually realize the inflation potential of recent U.S. monetary policy statements.”
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded its first net inflow since January, according to preliminary data from Farside Investors. The inflow totaled $63 million, ending a trend of 78 consecutive days of outflows.
According to Bloomberg’s report, a new indicator developed jointly by Visa and blockchain data analytics company Allium Labs shows that over 90% of stablecoin trading volume does not come from real users. This indicates that these types of cryptocurrencies still have a long way to go before becoming widely used as a means of payment.
Rostin Behnam, the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated on Monday that enforcement actions will increase as retail investor interest and the value of the cryptocurrency market rise. He expects another round of “enforcement cycles” within the next six months to two years.
According to HankYung, a South Korean media outlet, if the 22nd National Assembly of Korea takes office in June, the Democratic Party will request that the Financial Services Commission (FSC) reconsider Bitcoin ETFs and open such financial products in the country. In addition, the Democratic Party is considering options to amend existing financial regulations in case the Financial Services Commission is unwilling to approve Bitcoin funds.
FTX announced on Tuesday that it has submitted a revised restructuring plan and disclosure report to the court. According to the plan, 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of the recognized debt in cash within 60 days after the plan becomes effective, and other creditors will receive full repayment of principal and compensation for the time value of investments worth billions of dollars.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from the GT Radar official website announcement. Each user may have slight differences in performance due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!
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