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Market Analysis – BTC Weak Rebound Hits New Lows Again, ETH ETF May Launch Mid-Month
Binance Copy Trading Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
Market Potential Opportunities
SOL ETF Adds New Narrative, But Don’t Be Too Optimistic
Solana’s Robust Technology and Ecosystem
Solana’s Profitability Far Exceeds Peers
Featured News
June BTC fell 7%, and in early July, BTC rose to the planned red pressure zone of about $63,000, reaching a high of over $64,000. However, yesterday evening, it began to fall again, despite the dovish tone of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech early yesterday morning, which did not prevent BTC from further decline. The current price has fallen back to around $61,000, and the AltCoin market has also weakened in sync, with only SOL’s ecosystem showing relatively strong performance.
In July, two key events to focus on are Mt. Gox’s payout to creditors of billions of dollars worth of BTC, which caused significant market volatility last week but is expected to be short-lived, and the application for an ETF for ETH spot, with the SEC requiring the issuer to submit a modified S-1 registration statement by 7/8. Therefore, theoretically, the ETH spot ETF could start trading in mid-July or by the end of July, with special attention to ETH ecosystem-related currencies, as ENS’s performance has been relatively impressive in the past week. Additionally, Solana fund management company VanEck has submitted the first Solana spot ETF based on SOL prices in the U.S., with good performance in the ecosystem over the past week, but the current approval chances are very low, possibly resulting in short-term speculative effects.
From a technical perspective, BTC has fallen back to the bottom range, with support and pressure areas remaining unchanged. The recommended approach is to focus on conservative trading strategies due to the lack of upward momentum in the overall market since March.
The “GTRadar – BULL” and “GTRadar – Balanced” have seen a 7-day return rate of -0.64% and -0.32%, and a 30-day return rate of -15.48% and -2.03%, respectively.
The market has been oscillating over the past week, with BTC challenging $63,000 and then falling back to the $61,000 major support, while other AltCoins have also declined, erasing the gains of the past few days. Only SOL has shown relatively strong performance due to the ETF application. The overall portfolio return curve has not changed significantly over the past week.
The “GTRadar – BULL” currently holds a net long position of around 70% (full position is 300%), with a larger position in SOL and ETH. The “GTRadar – Balanced” currently holds a net long position of around 30% (full position is 300%), with a focus on ETH and BNB.
Investors who frequently change their portfolios may not achieve long-term returns as good as those who consistently follow a single portfolio. It is recommended to avoid ending a follow-up due to short-term setbacks, as the pullback may actually be a good time to start following up, and frequent exits and entries can significantly reduce returns.
This week, VanEck submitted a Solana ETF based on SOL prices in the U.S., injecting a strong boost for SOL’s token holders and providing a new narrative for the token’s value. However, from a rational perspective, the likelihood of the Solana spot ETF getting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not seem very high, mainly due to SOL’s asset positioning. Furthermore, the absence of a SOL futures ETF in the securities market poses an additional obstacle to potential approval.
The mainstream consensus in the market is that unless the U.S. undergoes a change in government policy and the SEC undergoes personnel changes, the likelihood of approval for a SOL ETF is “possible,” but it is not expected to be possible until 2025 at the earliest.
Even if the ETF is unlikely to be approved, Solana remains the most promising blockchain network in the current cryptocurrency industry. Despite the collapse of FTX/Alameda, SOL has survived under pressure and even reached historic highs, with multiple institutions purchasing large amounts of locked SOL from FTX’s estate at prices ranging from $64 to $100, indicating continued confidence in SOL. Additionally, in the meme coin wave this year, Solana once again demonstrated the vitality of its ecosystem, with many successful meme coin projects being born on the network, benefiting the entire ecosystem.
It’s important to note that public chains actually have revenue, cash flow, and profits (from Gas), indicating a clear business model. According to data from DefiLlama, Solana’s revenue has seen significant growth this year, far exceeding the previous bull market. Therefore, apart from Ethereum and Tron (benefiting from USDT), there are almost no competitors that can compete with it.
After considering Solana, take a look at Polkadot, which was once hailed as a top-tier project. The foundation released its financial report this week, revealing that it spent $87 million in the first half of 2024, and the ecosystem not only failed to grow but the remaining funds may only last for two years. Projects like Polkadot are plentiful in the cryptocurrency industry, but there are few protocols that actually make money. When discussing value investing, it’s important to return to the most basic “P = E × PE” valuation model:
P represents the market price of the stock.
E represents earnings per share, i.e., the company’s net profit divided by the total number of shares outstanding.
PE is the price-earnings ratio, which shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings per share.
While short-term token prices may be affected by market sentiment and narrative speculation, in the long run, value ultimately returns to profitability.
Suspected U.S. government-related addresses transfer $241M worth of Bitcoin to exchanges
In recent weeks, both the U.S. and German governments have begun transferring confiscated cryptocurrency assets to exchanges. According to data from the on-chain intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence, a cryptocurrency wallet marked as controlled by the U.S. government transferred about 3,940 Bitcoins (worth $241 million) to the Coinbase exchange. These Bitcoins were initially confiscated from a drug dealer named Banmeet Singh.
VanEck applies for Solana ETF in the U.S., calling SOL a commodity
Fund management company VanEck has applied for a Solana ETF in the U.S. According to VanEck’s S-1 registration statement, the “VanEck Solana Trust” plans to list on the Cboe BZX Exchange under the “Markets in Crypto Assets” regulatory framework and will hold Solana’s native token SOL, with daily valuation based on the reported MarketVectorTM Solana benchmark interest rate.
U.S. presidential debate does not mention cryptocurrency, leading to a significant drop in related meme coins
The first presidential debate of the 2024 U.S. election ended earlier today, with current President Biden and former President Trump not mentioning cryptocurrencies during the 90-minute debate. The lack of mention of cryptocurrencies in the debate did not lead to a major speculative frenzy for meme coins, but instead, there was a sharp drop after the debate began.
Kraken founder donates 1 million ETH to Trump, criticizes Biden administration for standing idly by in the face of cryptocurrency industry oppression
Jesse Powell, the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, announced on X today that he has donated $1 million to the presidential campaign of Donald Trump. Jesse Powell criticized the Biden administration for failing to take action against the oppression of the cryptocurrency industry and expressed his support for Trump to ensure the U.S. can continue to maintain its leading position in blockchain technology.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sues blockchain software developer Consensys for violating securities laws
According to legal documents, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially sued blockchain software developer Consensys for violating securities laws. The SEC accuses the company of operating an unregistered brokerage and engaging in the issuance and sale of securities through its wallet MetaMask. It also claims that the liquidity staking services of Lido and Rocket Pool constitute securities business.
Insiders: SEC requests issuer of Ethereum ETF to amend S-1 form and resubmit
According to reports from “The Block” citing insiders, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has returned the S-1 form submitted by the potential issuer of an Ethereum ETF. According to a source from one issuer, the returned forms contained simple comments, with the issuer being required to address these comments and resubmit them by July 8.
Spending 87 million ETH in half a year! Will the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation dry up within two years?
The Polkadot Foundation released its financial report for the first half of 2024 over the weekend. The report shows that the foundation spent $87 million (11 million DOT) in the first six months of 2024. According to official information, at a burn rate of $87 million in half a year, the foundation’s net loss is estimated to be about $108 million per year (17 million DOT), and if the DOTUSD exchange rate remains unchanged, the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation will dry up within two years.
Circle authorized to issue stablecoins USDC and EURC under European MiCA regulatory framework
Stablecoin issuer Circle announced on Monday that it has obtained a license and approval to issue stablecoins under the “Markets in Crypto Assets” (MiCA) regulatory framework in Europe. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated at a press conference in Paris that Circle is the world’s first stablecoin issuer to comply with the MiCA regulatory framework, which came into effect on July 1. Circle will be able to issue the US dollar stablecoin USDC and the euro stablecoin EURC under this regulatory framework.
Pendle’s total locked asset value drops by 3 billion ETH
According to data from DefiLlama, the total locked asset value of the DeFi protocol Pendle has dropped by nearly $3 billion, with most of it being so-called Liquidity Rehypothecation Tokens (LRT). The massive outflow of funds from the Pendle protocol is mainly related to the expiration of some products.
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index drops to rare negative levels
Data from the blockchain data analysis company CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase premium index has dropped to rare negative levels. Such deep negative values have often appeared near local price lows, indicating that this may be a signal that Bitcoin is bottoming out.
AI project Bittensor suspends on-chain transactions for investigation of attack event, TAO token drops by over 10%
The developers of the decentralized artificial intelligence project Bittensor temporarily suspended the operation of its blockchain network after discovering a suspected security vulnerability attack on user wallets. According to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, the attack may be related to leaked private keys.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from the official announcement of GT Radar, and each user may have slight differences in entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future performance!
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