Bitcoin experienced a sharp price correction starting from last weekend, followed by a rapid rebound after this week’s FOMC meeting. However, according to a report released yesterday by Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, two indicators – “Morgan Stanley’s Futures Position Proxy” and “the premium of Bitcoin futures prices relative to spot prices” – suggest that only a small amount of positions have been closed so far, indicating that Bitcoin is still in an “overbought state”.
There is significant optimism in the market regarding the rise in Bitcoin’s year-end price, driven by expectations of continued demand for spot ETFs and a reduction in Bitcoin supply after the halving event. However, recent data shows a slowdown in net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, challenging market confidence in a continuous one-way flow of funds into spot ETFs. Morgan Stanley analysts stated:
Last week, analysts predicted that after the halving, Bitcoin’s price could drop to around $42,000 due to reduced miner rewards and increased production costs.
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