New Study Finds it Difficult for even the “State Machine” to Implement 51% Attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum Networks

New Study Finds it Difficult for even the "State Machine" to Implement 51% Attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum Networks

New Study Finds it Difficult for even the "State Machine" to Implement 51% Attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum Networks

According to the latest research from Coin Metrics, a cryptocurrency research firm, it is almost impossible for even “national-level entities” to carry out a 51% attack on the Bitcoin or Ethereum network.

A 51% attack refers to a malicious actor having over 51% of the hash power in a proof-of-work system like Bitcoin, or over 51% of the cryptocurrency in a proof-of-stake network like Ethereum. In theory, attackers can use this centralized power to manipulate the blockchain, such as preventing specific transactions from being confirmed or reversing transactions to carry out double-spending attacks, thereby disrupting the network.

In their report on February 15th, Coin Metrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Water, and Matias Andrade pointed out that due to the current capital costs and operational expenses of the network, it is no longer feasible for national-level attackers to sustain attacks.

The authors used a metric called “Total Cost of Attack (TCA)” to quantify the cost required to attack a blockchain network.

The final research findings revealed that there is no economically viable approach in all hypothetical attacks proposed against the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks, meaning that attackers would have no economic incentive to carry out an attack.

By analyzing secondary market data and real-time hash rate output data, the study found that a 51% attack on Bitcoin would require an entity to purchase an astonishing “7 million ASIC mining machines,” which would cost approximately $20 billion, and even with sufficient funds, there are simply not enough ASIC miners available on the market for purchase.

But what if the entity has the capability to manufacture their own mining machines? The research suggests that assuming a national-level attacker has sufficient resources to manufacture their own mining machines, and Bitmain AntMiner S9 is currently the only device that can be reverse-engineered for manufacturing, the total cost is still estimated to exceed $20 billion.

The continuous growth of the liquidity staking protocol Lido has been seen as a serious threat to the Ethereum network by many. However, the research indicates that concerns about a 34% stake attack from validators from Lido on Ethereum may be unnecessary. The report states that attacking the Ethereum blockchain not only requires an extremely lengthy time but also entails significant costs. Lucas Nuzzi stated,