Vitalik on the Future of Ethereum Centralization of Staking is One of the Biggest Risks

In previous articles, Vitalik has discussed the “Merge” and “Surge” upgrades for Ethereum, as well as possible improvements to the Ethereum staking system, while setting an ambitious goal of achieving the ability to process 100,000 transactions per second on both the layer 1 and layer 2 networks of the blockchain.

In his latest article, Vitalik emphasizes that the risk of centralization in the proof-of-stake system is “one of the biggest risks facing Ethereum L1” due to economic pressures, and outlines various methods to mitigate this risk in the “Scourge” upgrade. Buterin points out that these risks mainly manifest in two aspects: block construction and capital provisioning for staking.

In the first part of the article, Vitalik explores the issue of maximum extractable value (MEV) and notes that currently “about 88% of Ethereum block contents are decided by two actors (proposers and block constructors)”, which increases the risk of censorship and may result in transaction delays of several minutes, particularly problematic for time-sensitive settlements or token exchanges.

Vitalik believes that one “critical” element in the solution could be an encrypted transaction pool, which would make it more difficult for block proposers to censor specific transactions. He also acknowledges that designing a system that is “both robust and relatively simple, and reasonably feasible” still requires further efforts.

Vitalik points out that a “core challenge” lies in combating MEV with different approaches: “any real power held by stakers can become power related to MEV”, which means there must be a balance between stakers’ ability to choose transactions and their potential to extract value from the blockchain.

He proposes two schemes with different trade-offs: one is the use of inclusion lists, where stakers submit a list of transactions that block constructors must include in the next block; the other is the use of multiple simultaneous proposers, distributing the block production process among multiple actors.

Vitalik concludes: “A conservative and effective strategy is to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, where we can first implement a scheme that limits stakers’ power and auctions off most of the power, and then gradually increase stakers’ authority as we gain understanding of the functioning of the MEV market.”

Vitalik points out that currently, approximately 30% of Ethereum’s supply is staked, which is “already sufficient to protect Ethereum from 51% attacks”. However, if this proportion approaches 100%, it may bring some risks, including weakening the effectiveness of slashing, unnecessary issuance of approximately 1 million Ether per year, and the potential replacement of Ethereum’s “currency” network effect by a single liquidity staking token (LST).

He proposes two main solutions: setting a cap on the amount of Ether users can stake, and implementing a two-tier staking system that separates staked Ether into slashable and non-slashable portions. Vitalik writes in the article: “The main remaining tasks here are either accepting the risk that nearly all Ether goes into LST, or finalizing the details of one of the proposals and achieving consensus on its parameters.”

Furthermore, Vitalik also presents solutions at the application layer, including the development and promotion of dedicated staking hardware, rewarding individual stakers through airdrops, and reducing MEV through more refined application design.

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